Author note — to cover

Use relative frequency when counting equally likely outcomes is impossible: drawing pins, biased dice, weather and survey data, with the wording estimate the probability. Include deciding whether a question needs data or the theoretical formula. Both tiers. State that more trials improve the estimate, detailed on effect-of-sample-size. (P1, P3)

• Fluency — direct questions on estimating a probability from data, limited to this lesson's stated scope (4 questions).
• Application — use the same skill in unfamiliar or contextual questions without introducing a later method (4 questions).
• Check — questions built around the exclusions and likely misconceptions named in the lesson brief (4 questions).