Author note — to cover

Relative frequency settles towards the true probability as trials increase and wanders when trials are few; read graphs of running relative frequency; explain what rolling 1000 more times would change. Qualitative only, both tiers. Exclude the formal law of large numbers and any error bounds, which are A level ideas. (P5)

• Fluency — direct questions on the effect of sample size, limited to this lesson's stated scope (4 questions).
• Application — use the same skill in unfamiliar or contextual questions without introducing a later method (4 questions).
• Check — questions built around the exclusions and likely misconceptions named in the lesson brief (4 questions).